Energy Forecast Reports

    The energy sector is one of the most volatile segments of the global economy. The CountryWatch Energy Forecast team develops demand and supply estimates over a 20 year period using five years of historical data for the three major fossil fuel markets: petroleum, natural gas and coal. In addition we project production of electricity from nuclear, hydroelectric and renewable resources. The fossil fuel prices are determined by balancing global demand and global supply over a 20 forward look. Energy is one of the major producers of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the model also projects forward estimates of CO2 based on the projections of fossil fuel consumption.

    TitleDescription
    Energy Forecast ReportsDownload Excel data or view a detailed PDF report which provides a forecast (through 2035) of trends for each of the numerous Energy sub-models.Download
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    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2010
    Standard Units
    Petroleum Consumption (TBPD) 42.76 42.76 43.00 127.00 130.00 130.00 132.16 134.65 137.62 142.57 145.22 152.16 158.25 164.24 170.11 175.81 181.31 186.57 191.57 196.25 200.60 204.57 208.14 211.28 213.96 216.17
    Petroleum Production (TBPD) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
    Petroleum Net Exports (TBPD) -42.76 -42.76 -43.00 -127.00 -130.00 -130.00 -132.16 -134.65 -137.62 -142.57 -145.22 -152.16 -158.25 -164.24 -170.11 -175.81 -181.31 -186.57 -191.57 -196.25 -200.60 -204.57 -208.14 -211.28 -213.96 -216.17

    Natural Gas Consumption (bcf) 4.94 4.94 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.70 5.80 5.87 6.05 6.33 6.40 6.77 7.11 7.46 7.81 8.17 8.52 8.87 9.22 9.56 9.89 10.20 10.50 10.79 11.05 11.29
    Natural Gas Production (bcf) 4.97 4.95 5.60 5.60 5.60 5.72 5.85 5.90 6.04 6.19 6.12 6.27 6.44 6.63 6.82 7.03 7.24 7.46 7.69 7.92 8.16 8.41 8.67 8.92 9.18 9.45
    Natural Gas Net Exports (bcf) 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.05 0.03 -0.01 -0.14 -0.28 -0.50 -0.67 -0.83 -0.99 -1.14 -1.28 -1.41 -1.53 -1.64 -1.72 -1.79 -1.84 -1.87 -1.87 -1.85

    Coal Consumption (1000s st) 799.18 799.18 1,367.00 1,485.00 1,673.00 1,642.49 1,612.53 1,603.32 1,632.53 1,686.69 1,721.88 1,797.74 1,867.11 1,935.85 2,003.54 2,069.72 2,133.91 2,195.58 2,254.22 2,309.29 2,360.26 2,406.64 2,447.93 2,483.72 2,513.60 2,537.26
    Coal Production (1000s st) 779.38 783.92 1,367.00 1,485.00 1,673.00 1,606.41 1,542.48 1,640.86 1,684.22 1,733.11 1,758.49 1,806.41 1,854.59 1,904.87 1,957.07 2,011.02 2,066.52 2,123.33 2,181.21 2,239.90 2,299.13 2,358.62 2,418.09 2,477.26 2,535.87 2,593.66
    Coal Net Exports (1000s st) -19.80 -15.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 -36.07 -70.05 37.54 51.69 46.42 36.60 8.66 -12.52 -30.98 -46.47 -58.70 -67.39 -72.25 -73.01 -69.39 -61.13 -48.02 -29.85 -6.46 22.27 56.40

    Biofuels Production (TBPD) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

    Nuclear Production (bil kwh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
    Hydroelectric Production (bil kwh) 0.75 0.60 0.71 0.80 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.94 0.97 0.99 1.02 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.15 1.18 1.21 1.25 1.29 1.32 1.36 1.40 1.44 1.48 1.53 1.57
    Renewables Production (bil kwh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
    Quads
    Petroleum Consumption (Quads) 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.46
    Petroleum Production (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
    Petroleum Net Exports (Quads) -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.27 -0.28 -0.28 -0.28 -0.29 -0.29 -0.30 -0.31 -0.32 -0.34 -0.35 -0.36 -0.38 -0.39 -0.40 -0.41 -0.42 -0.43 -0.44 -0.44 -0.45 -0.46 -0.46

    Natural Gas Consumption (Quads) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
    Natural Gas Production (Quads) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
    Natural Gas Net Exports (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

    Coal Consumption (Quads) 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
    Coal Production (Quads) 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
    Coal Net Exports (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

    Biofuels Production (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

    Nuclear Production (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
    Hydroelectric Production (Quads) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
    Renewables Production (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
    Total Energy Consumption (Quads) 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14
    World Energy Price Summary
    Petroleum-WTI ($/bbl) 79.43 95.05 94.13 97.99 93.28 48.71 43.14 43.69 45.16 46.71 47.28 48.67 50.08 51.57 53.15 54.83 56.62 58.51 60.51 62.65 64.91 67.31 69.87 72.59 75.48 78.56
    Natural Gas-Henry Hub ($/mmbtu) 4.39 4.00 2.76 3.71 4.35 2.60 2.52 3.01 3.07 3.14 3.17 3.23 3.28 3.33 3.39 3.45 3.51 3.57 3.64 3.72 3.80 3.88 3.97 4.07 4.17 4.28
    Coal Thermal-US CAPP ($/ST) 98.97 121.45 72.06 71.39 69.00 53.59 44.75 47.75 49.51 51.37 52.73 54.47 56.06 57.73 59.49 61.33 63.28 65.32 67.47 69.73 72.11 74.62 77.26 80.05 82.99 86.08
    CO2 Emissions
    Petroleum Based (mm ST CO2) 2.04 2.04 7.28 21.51 22.02 22.02 22.38 22.80 23.31 24.14 24.59 25.77 26.80 27.81 28.81 29.77 30.70 31.60 32.44 33.24 33.97 34.64 35.25 35.78 36.23 36.61
    Natural Gas Based (mm ST CO2) 0.08 0.08 0.11 0.11 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.08 0.11 0.06 0.29 0.29 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.37 0.37 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.46
    Coal Based (mm ST CO2) 0.46 0.46 3.17 3.44 3.87 3.80 3.73 3.71 3.78 3.91 3.99 4.16 4.32 4.48 4.64 4.79 4.94 5.08 5.22 5.35 5.47 5.57 5.67 5.75 5.82 5.88
    Total CO2 Emissions (mm ST CO2) 2.58 2.58 10.55 25.05 25.93 25.86 26.16 26.56 27.17 28.16 28.64 30.22 31.41 32.63 33.78 34.89 35.98 37.02 38.01 38.94 39.81 40.59 41.31 41.95 42.49 42.94
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