In this edition (November 15, 2009):
The "Featured Country" focuses on the United States and Russia. The Special Entry: Asia-Pacific Summit includes coverage of Singapore, Japan, Burma(Myanmar), Indonesia, China, and references Iran's nuclear program and climate change talks. The "International Hot Stories" include coverage of: United States, Afghanistan, Pakistan, North Korea, South Korea, Cambodia, Thailand, Tonga, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Kosovo, Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia, Chile, Peru and Guinea.
Featured Country
Americas: United States; Europe/Asia: Russia
United States and Russia announce replacement treaty aimed at reducing nuclear arms should be ready by year's end; talks marked by cooperation and confidence-building
Summary:
Summary:
The United States and the Russian Federation announced they would present a new treaty, aimed at replacing the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) -- the prevailing nuclear arms agreement between the two countries that was set to expire in December 2009. The announcement came at the close of a summit of Asia-Pacific leaders in Singapore, and occurred following discussions between United States President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. According to United Stated officials, the leaders of the United States and Russia agreed on the broad outline a new treaty, which could be signed in December 2009 when President Obama was expected to travel to Europe to accept the Nobel Peace Prize. Both the United States and Russia characterized the bilateral negotiations as positive, pragmatic and cooperative.
Background:
In April 2009, United States President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev agreed to forge a new nuclear arms reduction pact, which would not only replace START --the treaty signed by former United States President George H. W. Bush and former Soviet President Michel Gorbachev -- but also expand upon its parameters, with an eye on increased disarmament.
Then, in July 2009, at a summit in Moscow, President Obama and President Medvedev agreed to cut the number of nuclear warheads in the possession each country to between 1,500 and 1,675 over the course of the next seven years. Russian President Medvedev described this particular objective as "reasonable." The agreement was expected to set the foundation for a later treaty to be forged, which would replace START as noted above. Speaking from the Kremlin in Moscow, President Obama explained that he intended to move toward nuclear arms reduction and greater bilateral engagement saying, "We must lead by example, and that's what we are doing here today." He continued, "We resolve to reset U.S.-Russian relations so that we can cooperate more effectively in areas of common interest."
In October 2009, United States officials were in Russia for missile defense negotiations with Russian counterparts. Speaking ahead of the negotiations, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said the United States and Russia must advance strategic arms reduction. In an interview with Russia's Channel Once, President Medvedev said, "While dealing with non-proliferation, we must simultaneously deal with the limitation and reduction of strategic offensive potentials -- both carriers and nuclear warheads." Medvedev continued, "Today we have the chance to advance this process. We will be dealing with this. And I call on our American partners to do the same."
With the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty set to expire on Dec. 5, 2009, President Medvedev said he believed Russia and the United States could reach a new strategic arms reduction accord. He observed, "There is definitely a chance for the agreement, since the new U.S. administration has demonstrated interest in this issue." Medvedev also said he did not support the expansion of nuclear weapons states recognized by the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. Striking a tone harmonious with his American counterpart, President Barack Obama, President Medvedev said, "We are against the extension of the nuclear club. Otherwise the situation will get out of control. The world without nuclear weapons is an ideal which should be on our agenda."
President Medvedev also reiterated his appreciation for President Obama's decision to scrap the Bush-era missile defense shield plan, calling President Obama's new missile shield plans "sensible." He additionally noted that Russia was eager to extend missile defense cooperation with the United States and Europe.
On Oct. 13, 2009, United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton traveled to Moscow to meet with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lvov. In addition to the issues related to a new successor treaty aimed at strategic arms reduction, the two diplomats also discussed the matter of missile defense. Secretary Clinton addressed the Obama administration's plan to scrap the Bush-era missile defense system in Eastern Europe saying, "On the question of the missile shield, we are very open to cooperation with the Russians. We have made this clear to them. We believe that a joint missile defense would make sense."
Negotiations and Bilateral Relations
In November 2009, nuclear arms reductions negotiations were on the agenda at a meeting between the leaders of the United States and the Russian Federation. At issue was the crafting of a new agreement that would replace the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) -- the prevailing nuclear arms agreement between the two countries -- which was set to expire in December 2009.
Ahead of negotiations with Russian President Medvedev, during a news conference in Japan with Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, United States President Obama signaled his country's readiness to move forward on the issue of joint disarmament saying, "We are already taking steps to bring down our nuclear stockpiles in cooperation with the Russian government."
As noted above, days later, the United States and the Russian Federation announced they would present a new treaty, aimed at replacing START. The announcement came at the close of a summit of Asia-Pacific leaders in Singapore, and occurred following discussions between United States President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. According to United Stated officials, the leaders of the United States and Russia found concurrence on the broad outline a new treaty, which could be signed in December 2009 when President Obama was expected to travel to Europe to accept the Nobel Peace Prize.
As reported in the Associated Press, President Obama said that he and his Russian counterpart had made "excellent progress" on the new treaty negotiations. President Medvedev said his objective was to "finalize the text of the document by December." While acknowledging that technical details were yet to be worked through, President Obama said, "I'm confident that if we work hard and with a sense of urgency, we'll be able to get that done."
With such a tight timeline in the offing, Daryl Kimball, the executive director of the Arms Control Association, said he did not anticipate any significant obstacles that foresee could not be resolved before December 2009. According to the Associated Press, he described the urgency motivating both American and Russian negotiations saying, "Neither side wants to go without a new agreement for very long."
The news agency, Itar-Tass, cited Russian presidential aide Sergei Prikhodko, who described the timeline on the agreement as follows: “We are working in order to prepare the treaty within the timeframe about which the presidents spoke."
Prikhodko also lauded the spirit of engagement from the Obama administration in the United States saying, “We are satisfied at present with the nature of the open, pragmatic and future-oriented dialogue that is developing with the new administration: it allows us to hope for the continuation of the joint work on issues where solutions have not been found yet.” He continued, “Each meeting of President Medvedev with Barack Obama give a considerable impulse to the interaction in bilateral affairs, contributes to confidence building, understanding on key issues." Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov described the current climate of bilateral relations as follows: “The two presidents absolutely agree that we should overcome the stagnation in relations between Moscow and Washington that was observed during the Bush administration when good personal relations did not transform in any way into something really partnership-like."
The White House has not denied the existence of disagreements between the United States and Russia on certain elements of the proposed agreement to replace START. As noted by Itar-Tass, a spokesman for the White House’s National Security Council, Mike Hammer, explained that both countries were working to resolve the existing disagreements. Echoing some of the sentiment expressed by Prikhodko and Lavrov, Hammer characterized relations with the Russians as constructive, and he noted that both the United States and Russia were committed to the December 2009 deadline, given the imperative of increasing global security and advancing the objective of global non-proliferation.
Indeed, President Obama's call for nuclear disarmament was one of the key rationales behind the Nobel Committee's decision to award him the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize. At the time of its announcement, the Nobel Committee said that it “attached special importance to President Obama's vision of and work for a world without nuclear weapons.” To that end, the committee noted that Obama’s vision and work related to a nuclear weapons-free world has "powerfully stimulated disarmament and arms control negotiations.”
Editor's Note:
The 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) was forged between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms. START prohibited its two signatories from deploying more than 6,000 nuclear warheads on a total of 1,600 intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and bombers. START has been regarded as the most complex and substantial arms control treaty in history. It was signed just months before the collapse of the Soviet Union on July 31, 1991, and its entry-into-force was delayed as a result. An annex was crafted, which enforced the terms of the treaty upon the newly-independent states of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, and called for the transposition of nuclear arms from Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine to Russia for disposal.
Special Report: Asia-Pacific Summit
Asia-Pacific: Singapore, Japan, China, Burma (Myanmar), Indonesia; Europe/Asia: Russia; Americas-Pacific: United States
Nuclear arms, climate change, democratic freedom and economic crisis on the agenda at the Asia-Pacific summit
Summary
Gathering leaders from across the region, the meeting of the 21-country Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation was held in Singapore in November 2009. The summit featured discussion of major issues ranging from climate change to dealing with the global economic crisis. It was distinguished as being United States President Barack Obama's first presidential trip to the Asia-Pacific region, and accordingly, meetings on the sidelines with certain counterparts led to discussions of other matters. For example, President Obama's meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev focused on nuclear disarmament and the crafting of a new treaty to replace the expiring 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). However, United States-Russia cooperation on the matter of nuclear proliferation has also led to speculation about further cooperation in regards to Iran's controversial nuclear program. In addition, President Obama has waded into stormy geopolitical waters by calling for the release of Burma's pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi. See below for more details.
Balanced Economic Growth
Ahead of the opening of the summit of the 21-country Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in Singapore, United States President Barack Obama traveled to Japan. In that country, President Obama met with Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama. During his brief visit to Japan, the United States president addressed the global economic challenges by calling for "balanced growth," and warning against a return -- both in the United States and Asia -- of imbalance in which the United States has been viewed only as an export market by Asian economies, largely as a result of American consumer spending. President Obama's call in these regards was echoed by Michael Froman, the United States deputy national security adviser for international economic affairs, who said the economic orientation being put forth at the summit "includes both a discussion of balanced and sustainable and inclusive growth, as well as trade liberalization."
Climate Change
Leaders at the summit of the 21-country Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in Singapore discussed a compromise agreement on climate change ahead of the global gathering to take place in December 2009 in Copenhagen, which was intended to discuss an international accord aimed at reducing carbon emissions that contribute to global warming. The very discussion of a compromise agreement was understood as tacit acknowledgement that negotiations at Copenhagen were not expected to yield an actual successor treaty to replace the Kyoto Treaty. Indeed, Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen, the chairman of the United Nations-sponsored Copenhagen talks, flew to Singapore to present a "politically binding" document that would serve as the interim climate change agreement, with a legally binding agreement to be forged in 2010 in Mexico City. For his part, United States President Barack Obama expressed support for the phased approach, but also warned fellow leaders not to let the pursuit of idealism get in the way of pragmatic action.
Nuclear Politics
As noted above, United States President Obama's meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit focused on nuclear disarmament and, particularly, on the crafting of a new treaty to replace the expiring 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). As United States-Russia sought cooperation on the matter of reducing nuclear proliferation, it was not surprising that Iran's controversial nuclear program also came to the fore. On this issue, President Obama pressed for more pressure on Iran to come to some resolution with the international community over its nuclear program, but warned that time was running out. Referring to a compromise proposal on the table that would send low enriched uranium out of Iran for reprocessing, and thus, curtail that country's nuclear breakout capability, President Obama said, "Unfortunately, so far it appears Iran has been unable to say yes." Also on the agenda was Iran's willingness to comply with inspections from the International Atomic Energy Agency, which were aimed at determining if Iran's nuclear program includes weaponization. President Medvedev addressed the current course of multilateral diplomacy saying, "We are prepared to work further and I hope our joint work will reach a positive result. In case we fail, other options remain on the table." Yet to be determined was whether or not "other options" included further sanctions against Iran.
Policy on Burma (Myanmar)
During his trip to Asia, United States President Obama waded into stormy geopolitical waters by attending a meeting of the 10-country bloc Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), which was also attended by one of the leaders of the military junta ruling Burma (Myanmar). It was a move aimed at pressing Burma (Myanmar) towards a return to democracy. While some hardliners at home were expected to rail against President Obama for attending such a meeting, it appeared to be consistent the Obama administration's policy of "pragmatic engagement." In the past, leaders from the United States have not attended meetings with Asean when the military leadership of Burma (Myanmar) was present.
In something of a policy shift, it was hoped that increased engagement would yield more productive results on the path towards democratic change in Burma (Myanmar). Still, such engagement, would not include the removal of sanctions until democratic progress has been tracked. During this notable meeting attended by Burma's (Myanmar's) General Thein Sein, President Obama demanded the release of pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been held under house arrest for much of the last two decades. As well, a joint statement by the United States and Asean called for "free, fair, inclusive and transparent" elections in Burma (Myanmar) in 2010.
Echoes of the Past: Indonesia
United States President Barack Obama ended his official schedule at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Singapore by meeting with Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. President Obama expressed optimism for improved relations between the country of his birth -- the United States -- and Indonesia -- a country where the president lived as a child. President Obama said that he looked forward to a trip to Indonesia in 2010 when his family could accompany him and visit significant landmarks and haunts of his youth.
Shifting Relations with China
After leaving Singapore, President Barack Obama traveled to China for a three-day visit to that country, beginning in Shanghai. The two countries have sought to strengthen ties in recent times, and the United States and China were expected to continue to work together on international issues ranging from climate change to nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran. Despite a desire to work cooperatively, Washington and Beijing have nonetheless had to balance significant differences on these issues. Washington and Beijing must deal with the chasm in their targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. As well, Washington has taken a harsher approach than Beijing in dealing with the uranium enrichment activities of North Korea and Iran -- a scenario that will eventually have to be reconciled. In the background of these global challenges -- where both countries have played leading roles -- there is the reality that China holds much of the United States' debt, the fact that a trade imbalance exists largely due to the undervalued Chinese currency, as well as the prevailing objections held by the United States to China's human rights record, and its anxieties about the build-up of the Chinese military.
It has been precisely this complicated relationship that has led the Obama administration toward a highly diplomatic tone in which there has been less focus on these contentious issues, and, instead, on the gradually improved bilateral ties. To this end, President Obama addressed a large gathering of the bilateral delegations in Shanghai saying, "Both of the countries have benefited greatly from the progress we have made over the last two decades." This diplomatic tone, which eschews the negative elements and emphasizes the common ground, was not likely to gain President Obama support from hardliners at home. Nevertheless, analysts have noted that President Obama has been cognizant of the fact that ascendant China -- with one of the world's largest economies -- cannot be easily subordinated.
While in Shanghai, President Obama attended a town-hall style meeting attended by university students who had been selected by the Chinese authorities. There, President Obama said his country did not seek to impose its will or system of government upon other nation states; however, he expressly noted that principles of freedom were not unique to only the United States. To this end, President Obama said, "These freedoms of expression, and worship, of access to information and political participation — we believe they are universal rights." President Obama also emphasized the importance of unfettered access to information in the information age, including the freedom of people to criticize his own policies. His statement held particular poignance, given the fact that the town hall was scrubbed from Internet access -- a manifestation of what has been called the "Great Firewall of China." President Obama was scheduled to travel on to Beijing for a state visit, which was to be hosted by Chinese President Hu Jintao.
International Hot Stories
Asia: Afghanistan; Americas: United States
President Obama rejects all four options on Afghan-Pak strategy
In the second week of November 2009, it was reported that United States President Barack Obama was considering four options for an Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy in discussions with his security team. White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs confirmed this report saying, "The president will have an opportunity to discuss four options with his national security team." These options were rooted in a proposal submitted by the commander of United States and NATO forces in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, in October 2009, which was aimed at curbing the advance of resurgent Taliban. McChrystal argued that without urgent action, including the addition of troops as many as 40,000 in strength, the United States could lose the war effort in Afghanistan. Overall, McChrystal -- who was backed by NATO leadership -- called for a broad counter-insurgency strategy.
Opponents of McChrystal's plan have pointed to the fact that al-Qaida -- the true target of United States efforts in Afghanistan -- number only around 100. Accordingly, the escalation of United States forces in Afghanistan could only be justified with a modified mission. To that end, supporters of McChrystal have argued that while al-Qaida has seen dwindling numbers, its terrorist objectives were now being carried out by an emboldened Taliban, and were illustrative of shifting alliances and power dynamic in the region. Of course, that region is not limited only to Afghanistan, and active factions of both al-Qaida and the Taliban have been waging violent attacks in neighboring Pakistan. Accordingly, President Obama was expected to be considering a strategy that addressed the Afghan-Pak region.
Perhaps this complicated landscape contributed to the revelation that President Obama had, in fact, rejected all four of the options presented by security advisers, asserting that they did not satisfy his concerns over a clear exit strategy. This position was confirmed by White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, who said in an interview on Air Force One, "An exit strategy is as important as ramping up troops. It's important to fully examine not just how we're going to get folks in but how we're going to get folks out."
In a related development, the United States ambassador to Afghanistan was reported to have sent two classified cables to Washington expressing concern over the deployment of further troops to Afghanistan, at a time when the Karzai government in Kabul was re-elected amidst allegations of vote fraud -- the latest manifestation of corruption and mismanagement at the core of governance. Indeed, it was the very climate of corruption and mismanagement that facilitated the resurgence of the Taliban in the first place. Ambassador Karl W. Eikenberry -- who served as the United States military commander in Afghanistan in 2006 and 2007 before retiring from the military and taking on a diplomatic role in April 2009 -- apparently characterized Afghan President Hamid Karzai as erratic, excoriated senior Afghan government officials for their rampant corruption, and criticized the installation of warlords and drug smugglers in influential positions on the Afghan governing landscape. Eikenberry reportedly concluded that the Afghan leadership was incapable of being an effective -- or appropriate -- partner, and accordingly, advised President Obama against escalating troop strength in Afghanistan.
No actual decision on the Afghan-Pak strategy was expected until later in November 2009 when President Obama was expected to return from a trip to Asia. White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs defended the protracted process of decision-making saying, "This has been a very rigorous and deliberative process ... to get the best decision possible." He continued, "The president outlined the way we would go about making this decision, and that's what he's stuck to. He understands that the key is getting this decision right. "
Asia: Afghanistan
Militants target police checkpoint in Kandahar
On Nov. 15, 2009, extremist Islamic militants targeted a police checkpoint in the restive Afghan province of Kandahar. At least three policemen were killed and six others were wounded as a result; some reports suggested a higher death toll of as many as eight policemen dead.
Asia: Pakistan
Peshawar a key target of violence in Pakistan
On Nov. 8, 2009, a suicide bombing close to the north-western Pakistani city of Peshawar left at least 12 people dead and another 35 injured. Included in the list of victims was the mayor of Adizai -- Mayor Abdul Malik -- who was known to be a strong opponent of the Taliban and appeared to be the main target of the attack. For its part, the Taliban claimed responsibility.
On Nov. 9, 2009, Peshawar was the site of further violence when a suicide bombing at a police checkpoint left at least three people dead. Then, on Nov. 10, 2009, at least 24 people died and more than 100 people were wounded as a result of a car bombing at a marketplace in the Pakistani town of Charsadda to the north-east of Peshawar. The latest attack was blamed on the Pakistani Taliban, which promptly denied being responsible.
Attack on Pakistan's intelligence office indicates escalation in militants' efforts
On Nov. 13, 2009, the Inter-Services Intelligence office in Peshawar office was the target of an attack by extremist Islamic militants in Pakistan. The car bomb attack on the country's top military intelligence agency left at least ten people dead and scores more injured. It was a clear indication that extremist Islamic militants were escalating their efforts on Peshawar. That same day saw a bomb attack on a police station in Bannu, to the southwest of Peshawar. At least seven people died in that incident. Earlier, a suicide car bombing at a police checkpoint in Peshawar left at least ten people dead and 25 others injured.
Note:
In October 2009, the Pakistani authorities launched a military offensive against extremist Islamic militants in their stronghold of South Waziristan. Since that time, Peshawar has seen a consistent assault of violence by extremist Islamic militants, generally understood to be carried out in retaliation to the military offensive in South Waziristan. Peshawar may have been targeted because of its location close to Pakistan's tribal areas where the Taliban, al-Qaida and other terror groups have held sway. Some analysts have suggested that the almost daily attacks on Peshawar are part of a strategy intended to undermine the people's confidence in the already-weak government and its instruments, such as the military and the intelligence service. Regardless of the cause, the result has been an almost relentless stream of violence wracking Pakistan and particularly, the region around Peshawar.
Asia: North Korea and South Korea; see also Americas: United States
Despite naval clash between the two Koreas, direct talks between Pyongyang and Washington go forward
On Nov. 10, 2009, South Korean and North Korean ships exchanged heavy fire at sea in South Korean waters when a North Korean patrol boat traversed the Northern Limit Line, which demarcates the boundary between the two Koreas. The exchange of fire was described as having lasted only for a short period of time and left a North Korean vessel in flames but with no casualties on the South Korean side. There was no information available on the casualties -- if any -- from Pyongyang. Whereas the South Korean authorities characterized the incident as "accidental," the North Koreans said it was an "armed provocation."
Despite this incident, United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that talks between Washington and Pyongyang would go forward, as planned. Speaking at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Singapore, Secretary Clinton said, "This does not in any way affect the decision to send ambassador Bosworth. We think that this is an important step that stands on its own." To that end, Bosworth was expected to travel to Pyongyang for direct talks with the North Koreans following the Asia-Pacific summit. It would be the first direct contact between the United States and North Korea in more than a year. On the agenda during that meeting would be the matter of North Korea's return to the stalled six-party talks on denuclearization.
Asia: Cambodia; Thailand
Cambodia and Thailand recall their ambassadors over appointment of Thaksin as government adviser
Poor bilateral ties between Cambodia and Thailand devolved in November 2009 after Cambodia made the decision to appoint ousted Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra as a government adviser. Thailand first announced it was recalling its ambassador from Cambodia, charging that the appointment of Thaksin to a key government role in that country was tantamount to interference in Thai internal affairs. Thailand also warned it was reviewing all agreements with Cambodia. Hours later, Cambodia reciprocated by announcing it was also recalling its envoy from Thailand. By Nov. 13, 2009, the two countries had expelled additional diplomats in a clear sign that the diplomatic imbroglio was deepening further.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) urged both Thailand and Cambodia to show "maximum restraint" over the Thaksin issue. For his part, former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin was ousted from office in 2006 during a coup d'etat. He was then banned from politics, faced with corruption charges, convicted in absentia, and living in exile. Thaksin's new role on the Cambodian political scene served only to raise the ire of the Thai authorities.
These developments ensued at a time when relations between the two countries have been strained over the contested territory surrounding the Preah Vihear temple. Both Thailand and Cambodia have made claims on the area but an international court awarded Preah Vihear temple to Cambodia in 1962. That said, a patch of land measuring less than two square miles surrounding the temple has remained the source of conflict with both sides making territorial claims. In fact, the issue has become a flashpoint for violent clashes between the two sides. Officials from both countries have urged dialogue to resolve this decades-old border dispute, which re-erupted only days after UNESCO declared the temple to be a World Heritage Site. As such, the UNESCO decision may well have ignited nationalist tensions between Cambodia and Thailand.
Pacific: Tonga
Tonga's Constitutional and Electoral Commission recommends transforming country to constitutional monarchy
On Nov. 10, 2009, the Constitutional and Electoral Commission of Tonga released its final report detailing a proposal for a new system of government to be introduced in 2010. That report recommended the transformation of Tonga -- an absolute monarchy -- into a constitutional monarchy, governed by an elected parliament. The report noted that the King and Privy Council would no longer belong to the executive branch of government, which should itself be answerable to the parliament. The monarch would no longer have the power to appoint the prime minister and members of cabinet at will, but instead, be relegated to a titular role in which such appointment would be made on the advice of the elected legislative body.
Middle East: Yemen and Saudi Arabia
Shi'a Zaidi rebellion in northern Yemen extends across border into Saudi Arabia
With the government of Yemen ensconced in an ongoing battle against the Shi'a Zaidi rebels in the northern part of the country, some of those very rebels have started operating across the border into Saudi Arabia. On Nov. 4, 2009, Shi'a Zaidi rebels crossed the border into Saudi Arabia, killed a Saudi officer, and reported that they had seized a strategic mountain top region inside Saudi territory. The rebels have accused Saudi Arabia of allowing the Yemeni military to use its terrain to carry out its offensive against them. For its part, Saudi armed forces responded and became embroiled in battles with the rebels in the border region.
Editor's Note:
At issue has been the Shi'a Zaidi rebellion, which led to the rise in violent attacks in certain regions of the country since 2004. The two sides agreed to a ceasefire but peace efforts quickly dissolved and fighting resumed in 2007. The period since 2007 has been marked by ongoing violence, resulting in the deaths of both Shi'a rebels and security forces. Known as the Houthis, the Shi'a Zaidi rebels have said they seek greater autonomy. At the core of the Shi'a Zaidi rebellion has been the claim that the government of Yemen is too closely aligned with the United States, which has provided supplies and training to Yemen's security forces under the aegis of the "war on terror." The rebels also blame the government for both corruption and discrimination. But Yemen's government has accused the northern Shi'ite rebels, led by Abdulmalik al-Houthi, of trying to oust the democratic government and advancing Shi'a theocratic rule in the country. As noted above, the situation has now spilled over the border into Saudi Arabia.
Europe: Serbia and Kosovo
Serbia urges boycott of local Kosovo election; Kosovo hails vote in effort to gain sovereign recognition
On Nov. 11, 2009, the Serbian parliament committee for Kosovo and Metohija urged citizens in Kosovo to refrain from voting in the local elections there. The committee released a statement that read: "The committee for Kosovo and Metohija calls for all citizens in the Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohija not to vote in the coming local elections there, organized by secessionists and separatists." The Serbian authorities argued that the elections in Kosovo, which declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, were in violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244 and the Serbian Constitution. Despite Serbia's refusal to recognize Kosovo's independence,
On Nov. 15, 2009, the people of Kosovo went to the polls to vote in local elections. It was the first electoral test in Kosovo since the declaration of independence from Serbia. Prime Minister Hashim Thaci's ruling coalition, led by the Democratic Party of Kosovo, claimed victory following a calm election in which turnout among the minority Serb population was higher than expected, given the call for a voting boycott from Serbia. The election was seen as a vital threshold in Kosovo's hopes for broad international recognition of its self-proclaimed sovereign status.
Editor's Note:
Officially, the Serbian province of Kosovo -- inhabited by a predominantly ethnic Albanian population -- had been governed by the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) since 1999, under the authority of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244. That scenario had been intact until the 2008 declaration of independence. As Kosovo gained international recognition of its status from world powers including the United States, the United Kingdom and France, Serbia contemplated how to deal with this fracture to its identity, legacy and territorial integrity.
In the period of late 2008 to early 2009, several developments occurred, which effectively reified Kosovo's status as a sovereign state, en route to being recognized by the broader international community. In October 2008, the United Nations General Assembly voted to refer Kosovo's declaration of independence to the International Court of Justice. In December 2008, security, judicial and customs functions transitioned from United Nations administration to that of the European Union. In January 2009, a multi-ethnic security force was established under the aegis of NATO control. The Kosovo Security Force replaced the previous security force that had been composed of veterans of independence campaign against Serbia.
Americas: Brazil and Venezuela
Brazilian Senate postpones vote on Venezuela's entry into Mercosur
On Nov. 13, 2009, the Brazilian Senate postponed a vote on Venezuela's entry into the South American trade bloc known as Mercosur trade bloc. The delay was due to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez' declaration that Venezuelans should prepare for war with Colombia. At issue for President Chavez was an agreement forged between Colombia and the United States that would allow the American military to use Colombian bases in its anti-narcotics trafficking efforts. President Chavez has argued that the agreement obfuscates the United States' deeper intent to grab a foothold in South America, including the possible invasion of Venezuela. Regardless, President Chavez' declaration was viewed by the Brazilian Senate as an exercise in hyperbole and fiery rhetoric, which tainted the support of some members of the body. Already, there has been strong criticisms in Brazil regarding President Chavez' suppression of independent media and somewhat autocratic tendencies in Venezuela. There was no new date set for a vote since the immediate effort was centered on calming the situation and dispelling doubts about Venezuela's entry into Mercosur.
Editor's Note:
Jointly founded in 1991 by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay under the Treaty of Asuncion, Mercosur has defined itself as the trading bloc of South America. That said, Mercosur has not yet actualized the free movement of goods, capital, services and people among its member-states.
Americas: Colombia and Venezuela
Colombia briefly details members of Venezuelan national guard
Tense relations between Colombia and Venezuela devolved in November 2009 when Colombia detained four members of the Venezuelan national guard on Colombian territory. Colombian authorities said the four were detained along a river in the border province of Vichada. The situation was not expected to last long since Colombian President Alvaro Uribe said they would be released and returned to Venezuela. Perhaps with an eye on calming the heightened tensions between the two countries, President Uribe said there was "unbreakable affection" between his country of Colombia and neighboring Venezuela. The incident came a week after Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez sent troops to the border region in an apparent response to an agreement forged between Colombia and the United States that would allow the American military to use Colombian bases in its anti-narcotics trafficking efforts. Venezuelan President Chavez has decried the move, charging that the agreement was part of the United States' agenda to ultimately invade his country. This claim has been strongly denied by the United States.
Americas: Chile and Peru
Peru orders arrest of two Chilean officers in spy scandal
In November 2009, a diplomatic imbroglio erupted between Chile and Peru. The situation was sparked when a court in Peru ordered the arrest of two Chilean military officers in connection with allegations of spying. At issue was the claim that the two Chilean military officers tried to bribe a Peruvian air force officer to reveal national security details. The situation reached the uppermost reaches of the two countries' executive branches of government with Peruvian President Garcia cancelling a scheduled meeting with Chilean President Michelle Bachelet.
This spy scandal served only to exacerbate already-strained bilateral ties. In October 2009, military exercises conducted by Chile close to a disputed portion of the border with Peru raised the ire of the Peruvian government. The two countries have been ensconced in an acrimonious border dispute since the late 19th century when Chile was victorious over Peru in the War of the Pacific. Meanwhile, Peru sought a resolution from the international court at The Hague for its claims over a disputer maritime border.
Americas: United States
September 11, 2001, "mastermind" and four co-defendants to be tried in civilian court in New York
On Nov. 13,2009, United States Attorney General Eric Holder announced that Khalid Sheik Mohammed -- the self-proclaimed "mastermind" of the September 11, 2001, terror attacks -- along with four co-defendants, would be tried in a civilian court in New York. Attorney General Holder said these legal cases would be handled by prosecutors working in the Southern District of New York. Indeed, the courthouse in lower Manhattan has been the venue of several terrorism trials in recent times -- a fact that Attorney General Holder pointed out when he described the New York court system as "hardened" by a history of such cases.
The five detainees would be transferred from the military prison at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba to New York after formal charges have been filed, and after Congress has been given a 45-day notice. Attorney General Holder also declared that the Justice Department would seek the death penalty for each of the five suspects. He said, "I fully expect to direct prosecutors to seek the death penalty against each of the alleged 9/11 conspirators." As to the risk of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed being found not guilty in a United States civilian trial, Attorney General Holder said he expected a guilty verdict noting, "I would not have authorized prosecution if I was not confident our outcome would be a successful one." Likewise, United States President Barack Obama said, "This is a prosecutorial decision as well as a national security decision. I am absolutely convinced that Khalid Sheikh Mohammed will be subject to the most exacting demand of justice. The American people insist on it, and my administration will insist on it."
These moves were connected to President Obama's decision to close the military prison at Guantanamo Bay, which has become a controversial flashpoint in the realm of international jurisprudence. Khalid Sheik Mohammed and the four other defendants had been faced with capital charges in a military commission at Guantanamo Bay. However, the Obama administration sought suspensions in those proceedings while they searched for the best alternative venue for prosecution. This decision to seek justice through the United States criminal court system was decried by Republicans, who have argued that Bush-era military tribunals provided a more secure forum. Of course, human rights groups have themselves condemned Republicans' contention that military tribunals offer sufficient legal protections to defendants, arguing instead that they fall short of acceptable judicial process. For its part, the Obama administration elected in May 2009 to institute a modified military commission procedures that included a proper legal framework.
Meanwhile, Attorney General Eric holder also announced a trial by military commission for Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, a suspect in the bombing of the U.S.S. Cole. Analysts noted that the decision to pursue the now-modified military commission in this case was related to the fact that the target of the attack was a military vessel.
Africa: Guinea
Reports emerge suggesting Guinean military trained by South African mercenaries
In November 2009, a report by the Wall Street Journal asserted that the military troops loyal to Guinean President Moussa Dadis Camara's ruling junta were being trained by South African mercenaries. The training of the military troops has been regarded as significant, given the brutal attacks by the military upon civilians on Sept. 28, 2009, when Guinean soldiers opened fire on the protesters and carried out other deliberate acts of brutal violence, such as beating and raping women in the crowd. This revelation came at a time when fresh violence was being reported in the streets of the Guinean capital of Conakry. An unnamed Western diplomat said, "We have instructions that they are mercenaries who are training people of the same ethnic origin as the head of the coup d'etat." The diplomat continued, "We already have more and more reports of abductions and violence in the streets of Conakry." If true, it could augur further violence between the Guerze ethnic group of Camara and the dominant Peulh ethnic group.
Editor's Note:
Captain Moussa Dadis Camara came to power in a bloodless coup d'etat in December 2008. That seizure of power ensued in the aftermath of the death of long-serving Guinean leader, Lansana Conte. For his part, Camara has said he would not contest elections in a bid to hold on to power although he has maintained the right to stand as a candidate. However, his refusal to offer an outright denial of intent to hold on to power by contesting forthcoming elections have raised the ire of the opposition, ultimately leading to violent repercussions. Note that legislative elections were set for the October of 2009 but postponed until March 2010. The presidential election was expected to take place in December 2009 but postponed until January 2010.
Elections Update
Current and forthcoming elections of 2009 include -
Nov. 22, 2009: Romania's presidential election (first round)
Nov. 27, 2009: Namibia's presidential and parliamentary elections
Nov. 29, 2009: Uruguay's presidential election (second round)
Nov. 29, 2009: Presidential election in Cote d'Ivoire
Nov. 29, 2009: Presidential and parliamentary elections in Honduras (may not be recognized by OAS; dependent on San Jose deal aimed at ending political crisis)
Dec. 6, 2009: Bolivia's presidential and parliamentary elections
Dec. 6, 2009: Romania's presidential election (second round)
Dec. 13, 2009: Chile's presidential and parliamentary elections
Dec. 27, 2009: Uzbekistan general elections
Dec. 27, 2009: Croatian presidential election (first round)
Jan. 10, 2010: Croatian presidential election (second round)
Jan. 16, 2010: Iraq's parliamentary elections
Jan. 17, 2010; Ukraine's presidential election (first round)
Jan. 31, 2010: Guinea's presidential election (first round)
Feb. 28, 2010: Croatia's presidential election
February 2010: Costa Rica's parliamentary and presidential elections
February 2010: Greece's presidential election
February 2010: Sudan's parliamentary and presidential elections
February 2010: Tajikistan's parliamentary elections
March 16, 2010: Guinea's parliamentary elections
March 2010: Colombia's parliamentary elections
March 2010: Greece's presidential election
April 2010: Austria's presidential election
April 2010: Hungary's parliamentary elections
April 2010: Italy's parliamentary elections
April 2010: Solomon Islands parliamentary elections
May 2010: Colombia's presidential election
May 2010: Suriname's parliamentary elections
May 2010: Dominican Republic's parliamentary elections
May 2010: Philippines' parliamentary and presidential elections
May 2010: United Kingdom's parliamentary elections
June 2010: Parliamentary elections in Czech Republic
June 2010: Hungary's presidential election
June 2010: Slovakia's parliamentary elections
Note also --
-Presidential election originally set for September 2009 in Angola has been postponed
-Second round of Afghan presidential election set or Nov. 7, 2009 was cancelled
-Presidential election in Niger set for Nov. 14 and Dec. 6, 2009 has been cancelled
-Presidential election in Madagascar set for December 2009 has been postponed
-Limited information available about Saint Kitts and Nevis 2009 parliamentary elections
-Legislative elections set for 2009 in Comoros have been repeatedly postponed
-Presidential election set for 2010 in Comoros has been postponed
-Presidential election expected in Moldova although no date specified due to appointment of acting president
-Parliamentary elections in Canada are possible
-No dates available for pending presidential election in Chad
-No date available for elections in Yemen
-Despite international pressure, no date available for anticipated elections in Fiji
Editor's Note:
CountryWatch's coverage of global political events and developments is not an endorsement of any country's political priorities or any political interest group's agenda. CountryWatch takes a politics-neutral approach and encourages users to consider a variety of viewpoints and the complex range of parameters when studying either domestic politics or the international spectrum.
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- Denise Youngblood Coleman Ph.D.
Houston, Texas